Aussie mobile service revenue to hit $15.6B by 2026

Australian mobile service revenue is anticipated to reach US$11.2 billion ($15.6 billion) by 2026, mostly due to mobile data services.

According to research firm GlobalData, this revenue growth in the Australian mobile services market is representative of a five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3 per cent, up from 2021’s US$9.6 billion ($13.4 billion).

The firm claimed, through the analysis of its Australia Mobile Broadband Forecast Model (Q4-2021), that mobile data service revenue is forecast to rise at a CAGR of 4.1 per cent over the period due to the increase in 5G services adoption, in turn yielding higher average revenue per user (ARPU).

Meanwhile, mobile voice service revenue is predicted to decline at a CAGR of 0.3 per cent.

“While 3G service subscription is expected to witness a steep decline though the forecast period, 5G service will see its subscriptions surpass that of 4G service in 2024 and become the dominant mobile technology, cornering 68 per cent of total mobile subscriptions by end of the forecast period,” said Deepa Dhingra, senior telecom analyst at GlobalData.

“This growth in 5G subscriptions will be primarily driven by the ongoing 5G network expansions by the major operators – Telstra, Optus and TPG Telecom.”

While an increase in 5G services is expected to enhance mobile networks in general, it is also expected to be a boon to the channel, particularly in the security space.

Fellow technology research firm ABI Research claimed within that global 5G security revenue will grow over the 2021-2026 period by a CAGR of 41.4 per cent, to US$11.7 billion ($16.3 billion).

This shows there is a potential opportunity for managed security service providers (MSSP) to tap into 5G and add to their own service offerings, according to the technology research firm’s research director Michela Menting.

"Network security technologies (i.e., firewalls, IDS [intrusion detection system]/IPS [intrusion prevention system], SIEM [security information and event management], Anti-DDoS [distribution denial of service], etc.) will be in strong demand to secure the 5G mobile infrastructure and to provide new security value propositions to enterprise clients, especially as URLLC [ultra-reliable low-latency communication] and mMTC [massive machine-type communications] applications emerge,” she said.

“There is a significant opportunity to meet the enterprise market demand for network cybersecurity through various sales models (direct sales as well as through partnerships) with plenty of room for a rich and diverse vendor ecosystem to thrive, from pure-play cybersecurity vendors to communication service and network equipment providers to hyperscalers."

Meanwhile, Dhingra said Telstra is expected to lead the mobile services market in the country based on mobile subscriptions in 2021, with Optus in Second and TPG in third.

“Telstra will retain its leading position through 2026 with plans to increase its 5G network reach to 95 per cent of the population from the existing 75 per cent, while increasing metro cells by twofold to enhance 5G speed and capacity by 2025,” GlobalData's analyst added.

 GlobalData's analysis comes days after TPG Telecom signed a decade-long network sharing deal with Telstra, giving it access to 3,700 of the latter's mobile network assets. 

As part of the deal, Telstra will obtain access to and deploy infrastructure on up to 169 of TPG Telecom’s existing mobile sites as well as some of its existing 4G and 5G spectrum in regional areas.